BETHESDA, Md. and RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C., Nov. 05, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Hybrids are playing a larger role in how Americans move toward electrified vehicles. A new report from Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers finds that hybrid sales are poised to grow substantially over the next decade, while battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in the U.S. continues at a slower pace than in China and Europe.
Developed in collaboration with Strategy&, the strategy division of PwC, the 2026 Joint Powertrain Trends & Outlook Forecast projects that hybrids will grow from 17% of U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2026 to 32% in 2035. BEV share is forecast to rise from 8% in 2025 to 25% in 2035.
The findings point to a transition that includes an important hybrid phase before BEVs become more prominent.
What the 2026 Forecast Shows:
- Hybrids are gaining share. Hybrids are forecast to account for 32% of U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2035, compared with 17% in 2026.
- U.S. BEV adoption trails other markets. BEVs accounted for approximately 6% of U.S. new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2026, compared with 38% in China and an estimated 23% in European markets.
- Price remains a hurdle. Automakers are placing greater emphasis on models priced below $45,000, a segment where more new-vehicle sales occur.
- Hybrids can cost less to own. Despite higher purchase prices, hybrids have a lower three-year total cost of ownership than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles because of lower fuel costs and higher residual values.
- Buyers will have more choices. The number of hybrid models is expected to triple between 2025 and s035, across full hybrids, plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles.
What It Means for the Aftermarket
The report also puts the powertrain shift in the context of a growing aftermarket. The U.S. light-vehicle aftermarket, including warranty and post-warranty activity, is forecast to increase from $543 billion in 2026 to $733 billion in 2035, a gain of approximately $190 billion, or 3.4% annually. Growth is driven by consumers’ “repair, don’t replace” reaction to the cost of new and gently used vehicles. Price and product mix are also contributing to growth as vehicle population growth remains modest.
Within the post-warranty market, parts revenue associated with electrification is forecast to grow approximately 24% annually through 2035, while ADAS hardware revenue is projected to grow approximately 23% annually.
“The shift toward electrification is not happening in one straight line,” said Philip Atkins, director of strategic research and planning at MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “Hybrids are becoming a bigger part of the picture, and suppliers need to plan for that reality. The mix of vehicles on the road will keep changing, and understanding where that demand is headed will help companies make better decisions about products and investment. This report will help companies do that.”
“Price and choice matter to consumers, and the forecast makes that clear,” said Michael Chung, executive director, market intelligence, Auto Care Association. “As more hybrid models become available and automakers focus on affordability, the market is responding. This research helps aftermarket businesses understand the vehicles they will be serving in the years ahead.”
The 2026 Joint Powertrain Trends & Outlook Forecast is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit. Non-members can purchase the report at digital.autocare.org or mema.org.
About Auto Care Association
The Auto Care Association represents the entire supply chain of the $500 billion U.S. auto care industry, encompassing businesses that manufacture, distribute, and sell motor vehicle parts, accessories, tools, equipment, materials, and supplies, as well as those that perform vehicle service, maintenance, and repair. As a leading advocate for the industry, the Association provides essential resources, including global market intelligence, global product data standards, and U.S. legislative representation. Learn more at autocare.org.
About MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers
MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers exclusively serves manufacturers of the parts, chemicals, tools, diagnostics, and technologies that keep vehicles running safely and affordably across their lifetime. We are an important part of the vehicle supplier industry which is the largest manufacturing sector in the U.S, present is in all 50 states. MEMA Aftermarket is a recognized industry change agent— promoting a collaborative industry environment, providing forums to address issues and serving as a valued resource for members across the light vehicle, commercial vehicle and remanufacturing aftermarket.
MEMA, The Vehicle Suppliers Association, is the trade association in North America for vehicle suppliers, parts manufacturers and remanufacturers. MEMA has been the voice of the vehicle supplier industry since 1904. Its more than 1,000 members are Strong by Association.
Our members meet and enhance society’s transportation needs and are committed to safety, sustainable businesses, innovation, and the people who rely on us.
MEMA has offices in Washington, D.C.; Southfield, Mich.; and Research Triangle Park, N.C. Learn more at mema.org/aftermarket-suppliers.
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Stacey Miller Auto Care Association 240-333-1017 stacey.miller@autocare.org
